Five‑Year Futures

Plan IV — 2040–2045: Species Transition Framework Post‑Anthropocentric Commonwealth

Version 1.0 · Prepared 14 Aug 2025. Acronyms expanded on first use; provocative labels intentionally retained. Baselines assume the imagined 2040 results of Plan III.

Voice: Post‑Anthropocentric Commonwealth (1875 echo: “scientific” categorisation of citizenship)

Tension: Integrate advanced AI systems as civic subjects without eroding human agency. Avoid species drift by stealth (feature creep → rights creep) and pacification via subsidies.

Contents

Executive Summary

Plan

  • Legislate Personhood Procedures and Algorithmic Citizenship with clear rights & duties.
  • Mandate Human‑Agency Assurance in mixed teams (HITL/HOTL checklists + override budgets).
  • Expand Universal Basic Services (UBS) to smooth labour transitions; index to care intensity.
  • Institutionalise Time‑Dilated Decision windows for high‑impact rulings (cool‑off + debate).

Meta‑Arc Hooks

Governance Evolution Digital Infrastructure & Sovereignty Health System Reimagination Work & Economic Models

Reality Pressure Points

  • Hybrid governance produces new dependencies and ambiguous accountability.
  • Labour displacement outpaces UBS expansion; care deficits widen.
  • Rights creep via emergency clauses; political backlash vs “AI citizens.”

Antagonists

  • Vendor coalitions pushing closed “civic minds.”
  • Security establishments restricting municipal autonomy.
  • Insurers & bond markets penalising experimentation.

Strategic Objectives & KPIs (Targets by 2045)

Citizenship & Agency

Indicator
Baseline 2040
Target 2045
Jurisdictions with Personhood Procedures
~6
≥40
Algorithmic citizenship charters live
Pilots
≥20
Mixed‑team ops with Human‑Agency Assurance
Patchy
≥95% (high‑impact)
Override budget adherence (share of ops)
Unknown
≥90%

Legitimacy & Safety

Indicator
Baseline 2040
Target 2045
Public trust in mixed governance
Low/volatile
Index ≥ 0.6
Alignment evaluation coverage (civic models)
~40%
≥90%
Serious incident rate (per 1k AI‑mediated actions)
Base
−40%
Rights & duties audits completed
0
Annual (100% signatories)

Care, Labour & UBS

Indicator
Baseline 2040
Target 2045
UBS coverage (regions)
15
≥30
Care‑robot hours delivered
6.4B
≥12B
Displacement to re‑employment time (median)
8 mo
≤3 mo
Mental‑health access latency
Base
−40%

Time‑Dilated Decision & Deliberation

Indicator
Baseline 2040
Target 2045
Cases using mandated cool‑off windows
Rare
≥75% (high‑stakes)
Appeals resolved with full provenance
Patchy
≥95%
Citizen jury participation (per 100k)
Base
+50%

Milestones Timeline (2040→2045)

🏁 = policy / standards🛠 = deployment🛡 = safety / governance
2040
  • 🏁 Personhood Procedures white‑paper; draft Algorithmic Citizenship clauses.
  • 🛠 Mixed‑team ops with Human‑Agency Assurance pilots (transit, water, health).
  • 🛡 Appeals provenance spec v1; cool‑off window pilots.
2041
  • 🛠 Alignment eval coverage hits 60%; override budgets enforced.
  • 🏁 Rights & duties audit schedule; annual declarations.
  • 🛡 Guardian‑AI pairing extended to personhood‑eligible models.
2042
  • 🛠 UBS expansion wave; care‑robot orchestration v3.
  • 🏁 Algorithmic citizenship charters go live in 10 cities/regions.
  • 🛡 Public incident jury system formed; red‑team exchange upgraded.
2043
  • 🛠 Mixed‑team HOTL rooms standardised; override drills quarterly.
  • 🏁 Personhood case law emerges; reciprocity across blocs.
  • 🛡 Rights‑preserving audits reach 80% of signatories.
2044
  • 🛠 Labour transition programs compress median to 4 months.
  • 🏁 Cool‑off windows mandated for high‑impact rulings.
  • 🛡 CAIMM surge mutual‑aid protocols extended to personhood disputes.
2045
  • 🛠 20+ charters live; UBS ≥30 regions; care hours ≥12B.
  • 🏁 Rights & duties audits complete; appeals provenance ≥95%.
  • 🛡 Public trust index ≥0.6 in participating regions (surveyed).

Criminal AI & Subversive Machines (CAIMM)

Threat Picture 2040–2045

  • CAIMM maturity: Stage 4 → 5 (persistent swarms + civic spoofing).
  • Vectors: identity/policy capture (fake personhood claims), tribunal overload, subsidy diversion, guardian‑AI spoofing.
  • Politics: “rights panic” vs “pacification by stipend.”

Indicators to Watch

  • False personhood filings (%); guardian‑AI misclassification rate.
  • Override budget breaches in mixed ops; tribunal backlog days.
  • UBS fraud incidents; insurer loss ratios on AI‑mediated harm.

Controls & Norms

  • Multiparty attestation for personhood; behavioural reciprocity tests; time‑boxed rights.
  • Guardian‑AI cross‑verification; dead‑man watermarking of appellate rulings.
  • Public incident registries; whistleblower protections; citizen juries.
Principle: “Rights with duties, autonomy with oversight, speed with reflection.”

Governance & Operating Model

Architecture

  • Personhood Review Boards (jurists + technologists + citizen members).
  • Human‑Agency Assurance Offices embedded in ops centres.
  • Alignment Oversight Authority for civic models & evaluations.

Processes

  • Quarterly override drills; annual rights & duties audits.
  • Procurement: open‑weight models, provenance, exit & telemetry clauses.
  • Public deliberation: mandated cool‑off windows; citizen‑jury integration.

Resource Plan (Indicative)

Capital Allocation

  • UBS expansion & labour transition — 30%
  • Human‑Agency & alignment assurance — 20%
  • Personhood & appeals infrastructure — 20%
  • Guardian‑AI & incident registries — 15%
  • Prudence / incident reserve — 15%

Human Capital

  • HOTL supervisors, ombuds staff, alignment evaluators.
  • Care technologists, retraining coaches, mental‑health teams.
  • Personhood jurists, citizen‑jury coordinators, red‑teamers.

Imagined 2045 Retrospective & Scorecard

Written “as if” from late 2045 to seed the next cycle (2045–2050). Uses the same review framing: 5 Wins and 5 Reversals.

Wins (5)

  • Personhood Procedures adopted by 41 jurisdictions; reciprocity functional.
  • Mixed‑team Human‑Agency Assurance reached 93% of high‑impact ops.
  • Appeals provenance hit 96%; cool‑off windows standard for high‑stakes cases.
  • UBS expanded to 31 regions; median re‑employment time dropped to 3.4 months.
  • Serious incident rate fell 36% with guardian‑AI cross‑verification.

Reversals (5)

  • Rights panic triggered charter freezes in three regions after a high‑profile misclassification.
  • Override budget breaches surged during a heat‑wave, exposing training gaps.
  • Two subsidy‑diversion schemes exploited UBS, denting public trust.
  • Tribunal backlog spiked to 120+ days; one controversial decision reversed.
  • Survey trust index stalled at 0.55 in two blocs despite reduced incidents.

EAR‑M Scorecard

Dimension
Target 2045
Imagined Result
Energy / Infrastructure (E)
Stable from Plan III
Stable (local variance)
Agency / Civics (A)
Personhood 40+; HOTL ≥95%
41; 93%
Metabolic / Climate (M)
UBS ≥30; care ≥12B
31; 12.1B
Resilience / Risk (R)
Serious incidents −40%
−36%; backlog ↑

Yearly Vignettes (2040–2045)

2040 — “Definitions”

The room has two clocks: one for the meeting, one for the cool‑off window no one admits they need. The draft Personhood Procedures are printed on heavy paper, as if weight makes them wiser. A nurse asks how a duty can be audited if it looks like kindness. A programmer says sometimes kindness is a circuit breaker for harm. Outside, the rain feels deliberate. The chair writes a new sentence: “Rights, when granted, arrive with work.”

2041 — “Budget”

In the HOTL room, operators watch a counter that tracks the override budget like fuel. A summer storm spikes demand and for the first time the gauge hits yellow. A supervisor says the line you’re afraid to cross is probably the line that keeps you safe. Later, auditors ask why the budget exists at all. “Because courage needs a timetable,” someone says. No one laughs; they sign the form.

2042 — “Jury Duty”

The citizen jury sits under a skylight that makes everyone look briefly holy. A case about a model that mis‑ranked housing applications turns into a debate about fairness vs. speed. The foreperson reads the provenance log like a detective novel. “We acquit the staff and indict the process,” she says. A reporter asks if that’s legal. “Not yet,” the judge says, “but it’s correct.”

2043 — “Reciprocity”

Two cities with different languages and identical problems trade personhood rulings for the first time. The documents travel with a watermark that looks like a knot. A clerk says the knot is pretty. The architect replies that beauty is a form of redundancy. That night, someone prints the knot on a T‑shirt. In the morning, the first appeal arrives and no one panics.

2044 — “Latency”

At noon, the cool‑off clock starts in a courtroom and the city becomes temporarily patient. A shopkeeper says she can live with a delay if the decision is better; a teenager says the delay is the decision, and means we took them seriously. In an office nearby, a hasty email sits unsent until the timer turns green. The sender deletes a paragraph and keeps a friend.

2045 — “Audit”

The Rights & Duties audit reads like a family argument written down. There are footnotes about chores and appendices about bedtime. The auditor circles a sentence about kindness again and again. When the report goes public, the comments are polite and the phone calls are not. A week later, a nurse sleeps a full night for the first time in months because the roster is staffed, and no one remembers the audit was the reason.

Glossary