Five‑Year Futures

Plan III — 2035–2040: The Divergent Pathways Directive Thermodynamic Federalism

Version 1.0 · Prepared 01 January 2035. Acronyms expanded on first use; provocative labels intentionally retained. Baselines assume the imagined 2035 results of Plan II.

Voice: Thermodynamic Federalism (1905 echo: scientific management of energy flows)

Tension: Regions cross different energy thresholds. Our aim is to bend divergence toward stability—energy‑abundant zones lift the whole, while energy‑scarce zones avoid collapse.

Contents

Executive Summary

Plan

  • Stand up Grid Federations with transparent thermodynamic ledgers (public EROEI).
  • Accelerate firm, low‑carbon supply (advanced fission, geothermal, hydro) and long‑duration storage; HVDC build‑out.
  • Industrial metabolism: circular manufacturing, critical‑materials recovery, green ammonia, and precision fermentation for food security.

Meta‑Arc Hooks

Energy Abundance vs. Scarcity Geopolitical Reconfiguration Food & Water Systems Material & Manufacturing Revolution

Reality Pressure Points

  • High/low‑tech schism: Abundant regions decarbonise & grow; scarce regions ration and depopulate.
  • Resource nationalism tightens; permitting & transmission drag persists.
  • Migration stress reshapes labour, care, and politics.

Antagonists

  • Materials choke points; cartel behaviour in rare metals.
  • Security‑first responses that suppress power sharing & data transparency.
  • Bond markets penalising infrastructure lead times.

Strategic Objectives & KPIs (Targets by 2040)

Energy & Grid

Indicator
Baseline 2035
Target 2040
Grid‑average Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI)
~10
≥14
Firm low‑carbon share of generation
26%
≥40%
High‑Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) km added
Base
+60,000 km
Long‑duration storage (LDS) hours available
8 h
≥40 h
Blackout hours / 1k users
Base
−50%

Materials & Manufacturing

Indicator
Baseline 2035
Target 2040
Materials Circularity Index (MCI)
0.42
≥0.60
Critical‑minerals recovery from waste
18%
≥45%
Process heat electrified (industry)
22%
≥50%
Green ammonia output (Mt/yr)
20
≥70

Food & Water

Indicator
Baseline 2035
Target 2040
Calories from precision fermentation / alt‑protein
8%
≥20%
Water‑stress index (people in high stress)
Base
−25%
Desalination + recycling share of urban supply
14%
≥35%
Soil organic carbon (SOC) in pilot basins
Base
+15%

Social Stability & Mobility

Indicator
Baseline 2035
Target 2040
Energy‑poverty rate
Base
−40%
Managed relocation corridors (operational)
Pilots
≥8 corridors
Care‑capacity ratio in receiving regions
Strained
Stabilised (index ≥ 0.8)

Milestones Timeline (2035→2040)

🏁 = policy / standards🛠 = deployment🛡 = safety / governance
2035
  • 🏁 Thermodynamic ledgers mandated in Grid Federations (public EROEI & losses).
  • 🛠 HVDC tranche‑1 approved; LDS procurement framework adopted.
  • 🛡 Critical infrastructure attestation baseline for grid‑edge devices.
2036
  • 🛠 Advanced fission & geothermal expansions break ground (50 sites).
  • 🏁 Materials reciprocity treaties (e‑waste to minerals pipelines).
  • 🛡 Grid anomaly‑sharing alliance; signed sensor telemetry.
2037
  • 🛠 Desalination + recycling reach 25% urban supply in 30 megacities.
  • 🏁 Process‑heat electrification credits; carbon border adjustments tighten.
  • 🛡 Rationing playbooks rehearsed (disaster & conflict scenarios).
2038
  • 🛠 Circular manufacturing parks online; critical‑minerals recovery ≥35%.
  • 🏁 Food‑grade fermentation standards harmonised; safety telemetry.
  • 🛡 Energy courts established for dispute resolution & fraud.
2039
  • 🛠 HVDC tranche‑2 energised; LDS ≥32 h in 4 federations.
  • 🏁 Managed relocation corridors activated (labour, care, housing).
  • 🛡 CAIMM surge countermeasures on cross‑border smuggling swarms.
2040
  • 🛠 Firm low‑carbon share ≥40%; MCI ≥0.60 in 3 blocs.
  • 🏁 Disaster‑mode “black start” procedures ratified across federations.
  • 🛡 Grid‑wide drills: 48‑hour islanding & safe‑restore rehearsed.

Criminal AI & Subversive Machines (CAIMM)

Threat Picture 2035–2040

  • CAIMM maturity: Stage 4 — persistent swarms thrive in weak‑state zones and along logistics corridors.
  • Vectors: energy‑infra spoofing (PMU/SCADA), convoy drone raids, pipeline taps, cross‑border smuggling swarms.
  • Grey‑zone conflict: sabotage masked as “accidents,” cyber‑physical hybrids.

Indicators to Watch

  • Grid incidents with autonomous planning; attestation coverage at grid edge.
  • Darknet pricing/volume for energy device exploits; insured loss ratio.
  • Mean time to isolate & island (federation level); black‑start success rate.

Controls & Norms

  • Signed sensor telemetry; tamper‑evident logs; remote attestation on IEDs.
  • Geo‑fenced autonomy; behaviour sandboxes for maintenance robots.
  • Federated incident exchange; guardian AIs for grid topology changes.
Principle: “Stability before abundance” — reliability and safe restore trump peak output during stress.

Governance & Operating Model

Architecture

  • Grid Federations with independent system operators and public thermodynamic ledgers.
  • Energy Courts for fast adjudication of inter‑regional disputes and fraud.
  • Materials Reciprocity Authority to link e‑waste streams to minerals recovery.

Processes

  • Quarterly islanding drills; annual “black start” rehearsals.
  • Procurement: open‑protocol HVDC/LDS, exit clauses, telemetry handover.
  • Public dashboards for EROEI, outages, and materials circularity.

Resource Plan (Indicative)

Capital Allocation

  • HVDC + LDS + grid digitalisation — 35%
  • Firm low‑carbon builds (fission, geo, hydro) — 25%
  • Circular manufacturing & minerals recovery — 15%
  • Food/water (desalination, fermentation, recycling) — 15%
  • Relocation corridors & care capacity — 8%
  • Incident reserve — 2%

Human Capital

  • Grid reliability & safety engineers; LDS operators; HVDC technicians.
  • Industrial ecologists; minerals recovery & recycling specialists.
  • Water engineers; fermentation process leads; relocation coordinators.

Imagined 2040 Retrospective & Scorecard

Written “as if” from late 2040 to seed the next cycle (2040–2045). Uses the same review framing: 5 Wins and 5 Reversals.

Wins (5)

  • Grid‑average EROEI rose to 14.2; blackout hours fell by 47%.
  • Firm low‑carbon share crossed 41%; LDS ≥40 h in three federations.
  • MCI hit 0.61; critical‑minerals recovery reached 46% in top blocs.
  • Alt‑protein hit 21% of calories; water‑stress population down 23%.
  • Two successful 48‑hour islanding drills averted cross‑border cascade failures.

Reversals (5)

  • Permitting drag slowed HVDC tranche‑2 in two regions; costs escalated.
  • Three grey‑zone sabotage incidents masked as accidents; one fatal.
  • Energy‑poverty pockets persisted where tariff reform lagged.
  • Migration corridors bottlenecked care capacity in two megacities.
  • One circular‑park scandal (waste fraud) dented public trust.

EAR‑M Scorecard

Dimension
Target 2040
Imagined Result
Energy / Infrastructure (E)
EROEI ≥14; LDS ≥40 h
14.2; 40–44 h (3 feds)
Agency / Civics (A)
Transparent ledgers; energy courts
Live in 4/5 feds
Metabolic / Climate (M)
MCI ≥0.60; alt‑protein ≥20%
0.61; 21%
Resilience / Risk (R)
< 2 major CAIMM energy events
3 (1 fatal)

Yearly Vignettes (2035–2040)

2035 — “Ledger Day”

The new dashboard goes live at noon. It looks like a weather map for power: arrows for flows, blue for storage, a soft red for losses. A grandmother in a hot district checks the app and applies for a cooling credit; a smelter schedules a shift for the cheap hours; a reporter screenshots a spike and asks whether it’s corruption. The operator shrugs: “It’s entropy.” In the evening, the minister says the word out loud—thermodynamics—and the journalists nod as if it’s always been a political term.

2036 — “Groundbreakers”

At the edge of town, a fence full of flags whips in the wind. A rectangle of earth is marked with chalk where the new geothermal pad will sit. The foreman taps the sign that says “public ledger inside.” A girl on a field trip asks whether the heat ever runs out. “Not before you get bored of the question,” he says. In a nearby warehouse, technicians practice swapping HVDC converter modules. Everyone argues about permits. At the diner, a server says the power is cleaner but the tips are the same.

2037 — “Salt & Sweet”

The desalination intake rumbles like a low ferry. Kids press their hands to the visitor‑centre glass and watch water turn from grey to clear to sweet. A union rep points out the overtime board: a lot of names, fewer hours than last summer. Far away, farm cooperatives spray fermented protein onto trays like frosting; the air smells faintly like oven bread and sea‑spray. “We’ll still cook,” an aunt says, “but the old recipes will have footnotes.”

2038 — “The Park”

The circular manufacturing park looks like a university until a gantry lifts a car‑sized block of shredded electronics into the maw of a sorter. Cameras read the scraps like a novel and sort copper from ghosts. A whistle blows when a rare mineral hits quota. A worker keeps a tiny jar of recovered silver on her desk. “It came from phones,” she tells her son on a school tour. “Maybe yours.”

2039 — “Islanding”

They dim the lights in the control room for the rehearsal. In the first minute, the federation cleaves into islands; in the second, a substation fails because someone forgot a patch; in the third, nothing bad happens and everyone exhales. A drone camera shows a string of converters like beads in the dusk. A note pops up on the wall: Don’t chase peak; chase survival. Someone takes a picture because the handwriting is pretty.

2040 — “Corridor”

The train runs the length of the relocation corridor and smells like cinnamon from the care‑kitchen. Volunteers staple maps to a corkboard while a nurse checks a new patient’s wristband. Out the window, a desal plant throws steam into a blue sky; past it, a field of mirrors aims light at a tower. A little boy points and says “power castle.” His mother laughs and cries at the same time.

Glossary